By Robert Higgins
Research for monetary administration, 9/e is a paperback textual content and has been written to offer general strategies and sleek advancements in a pragmatic and intuitive demeanour. it's meant for non-financial managers and enterprise scholars drawn to the perform of monetary administration. Emphasis is at the managerial purposes of economic research.
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It is also common to talk about observed (historical) PLL (number of fatalities per year) values, FAR (the number of fatalities per 100 million exposure hours) values and so on. Various normalisations may be used depending on the application involved. For example, in a vehicular transport context, we are primarily concerned with the (expected) number of fatalities and injuries per kilometre and year. 4 Qualitative judgements First let us again reflect on why we need to see beyond probability to express risk.
Using a number such as this is problematic, however, as the uncertainty about the consequence C is often large. It is more informative to use a prediction interval or formulate probabilities for various consequence categories of C, for example: the person will recover within 10 days, the person will recover within 1 month, the person will never recover or the person will die. 3. 2 19 Vulnerability A concept closely related to risk is vulnerability. It is basically risk conditional on the occurrence of an event A.
The category ‘Unlikely’ corresponds to a prediction of one event in 50 years or more, ‘Low probability’ corresponds to a prediction of one event in 10–50 years and so on. 5 Example of an F–N curve (Frequency–Number of fatalities). Note that frequency is an average number of events per unit of time or per operation. The connection between frequency and probability is illustrated by the following example. 0008 per hour. 0008 that such an accident will occur during 1 hour. This approach for transforming frequencies to probabilities works when this value is small – how small depends on the desired accuracy.